forthcoming legislative elections in Lithuania are scheduled to take
place in October
2020. Potentially, more political parties may be able able to enter
the parliament, as in December 2019 the electoral threshold has been
decreased to 3% for single parties and 5% for coalitions.
Lithuanian politics, party alliances change rather dynamically with
the most recent shift taking
place within the current government coalition structure. The
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS) was
forced to look for new coalition partners as in
2017 the center-left Social Democratic Party
of Lithuania (LSDP)
pulled out from the government coalition. It was replaced by the
Social Democratic Labour
Party of Lithuania (LSDDP),
minority Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania
– Christian Families Alliance (LLRA)
and right-wing Order and Justice party
the government coalition subsequently.
Meanwhile, the current polls demonstrate a decrease in electoral support of the governing parties. The conservative Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-KD) is the leading political force at the moment, scoring almost twice as good as LVZS. LSDDP is at risk of not being able to enter the new parliament, as its level of support is below 3%.
consider the following coalition constraints. Due to past differences
between LVZS and LSDP, we exclude the
of this coalition in the future. Similarly, a coalition of TS-KD and
LLRA, which broke down in 2014
is also excluded. Based
the current polls,
we present our forecast of government formation in Lithuania:
most stable (most
government formation scenario implies a government
led by LVZS, which also comprises the Labor party
Liberals Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS),
TT and LLRA. All other coalition scenarios are dominated by TS-KD,
with the most stable including LSDP and DP or TT.
Early elections in Spanish regions Basque Country and Galicia are to take place on April 5th. While, according to the current polls, center-right People’s Party (PP) holds a single majority in Galicia, multiple coalition formation scenarios may be possible in the Basque Country.
The Basque National Party (PNV), the leader of the current Basque government, also remains the most widely supported political party according to the current polls. Its coalition partner, the Socialist Party of the Basque Country-Basque Country Left (PSE-EE), scores the 3d after leftist and pro-independence Euskal Herria Bildu (EH Bildu). PSE-EE is the regional affiliate of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) led by Pedro Sánchez, the current prime minister of Spain. Right-wing Vox is taking part in the Basque region elections for the first time, and it is not clear whether the party will be able to enter the Basque parliament.
provide our forecast of government formation, we consider the
following constraints. The
alliance of People’s Party and Citizens (PP+Cs) excludes
Elkarrekin Podemos (EP-IU) and EH Bildu. PNV
some common ground in advocating Basque national interests, have
pronounced economic and social disagreements. Based
on these constraints and the data from public opinion polls we
provide our forecast.
Most stable (most likely) coalition formations scenario implies a left-wing government led by PSE-EE in cooperation with EP-IU and EH Bildu. A renewal of the current PNV – PSE-EE coalition constitutes a less likely alternative to the left-wing government. However, this time PSE-EE may take the lead, as it may have a power to choose between the two feasible coalitions.
The outcome of the Elections
signifies a shift in the political landscape of Slovakia: the
murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak seems
to have brought
the topic of alleged government corruption to
the focus of the public
debate. As a result,
two of the parties from the previous government coalition, the
right Slovak National Party
minority party Most-Hid (MH), did not pass the
threshold and will not be a part of the new parliament, while the
– Social Democracy (Smer-SD)
the same time, the opposition force Ordinary
founded as an
protest party is celebrating a convincing victory: it managed to
secure 53 out of 150 parliamentary seats. Other political parties
represented in the new parliament are Freedom
and Solidarity (SaS), For the People party (ZL) and
are Family (Sme
Rodina), while the
Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and
Progressive Slovakia-Together coalition (PS+SPOLU) did
not manage to pass the electoral threshold.
We consider the following constraints in coalition formation. SaS and ZL are members the non-aggression pact, which implies that cooperation with Smer-SD is excluded. Another constraint in coalition formation concerns the ultra-right People’s Party – Our Slovakia (LSNS): nearly all other parties exclude the opportunity to cooperate with it within one government coalition.
provide our forecast based
on the election results and
constraints in coalition formation discussed above:
form the new government, as it is present in every coalition
formation scenario. The most stable (most likely) coalitions also
include 2 parties out of SaS, ZL and Sme Rodina. The coalition
Smer-SD is less likely.