The new government in Lithuania may be led by the Conservatives or the Farmers and Greens

The forthcoming legislative elections in Lithuania are scheduled to take place in October 2020. Potentially, more political parties may be able able to enter the parliament, as in December 2019 the electoral threshold has been decreased to 3% for single parties and 5% for coalitions.

In Lithuanian politics, party alliances change rather dynamically with the most recent shift taking place within the current government coalition structure. The Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS) was forced to look for new coalition partners as in 2017 the center-left Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) pulled out from the government coalition. It was replaced by the Social Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania (LSDDP), with the Polish minority Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance (LLRA) and right-wing Order and Justice party (TT) also joining the government coalition subsequently.

Meanwhile, the current polls demonstrate a decrease in electoral support of the governing parties. The conservative Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-KD) is the leading political force at the moment, scoring almost twice as good as LVZS. LSDDP is at risk of not being able to enter the new parliament, as its level of support is below 3%.

We consider the following coalition constraints. Due to past differences between LVZS and LSDP, we exclude the feasibility of this coalition in the future. Similarly, a coalition of TS-KD and LLRA, which broke down in 2014 is also excluded. Based on these constraints and the current polls, we present our forecast of government formation in Lithuania:


Constraints in coalition formation

Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence of political parties (red lines)

Predicted government coalitions (white line denotes the level of stability)

The most stable (most likely) government formation scenario implies a government led by LVZS, which also comprises the Labor party (DP), the Liberals Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS), TT and LLRA. All other coalition scenarios are dominated by TS-KD, with the most stable including LSDP and DP or TT.

Regional elections in Spain: a left-wing government might be formed in the Basque Country

Early elections in Spanish regions Basque Country and Galicia are to take place on April 5th. While, according to the current polls, center-right People’s Party (PP) holds a single majority in Galicia, multiple coalition formation scenarios may be possible in the Basque Country.

The Basque National Party (PNV), the leader of the current Basque government, also remains the most widely supported political party according to the current polls. Its coalition partner, the Socialist Party of the Basque Country-Basque Country Left (PSE-EE), scores the 3d after leftist and pro-independence Euskal Herria Bildu (EH Bildu). PSE-EE is the regional affiliate of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) led by Pedro Sánchez, the current prime minister of Spain. Right-wing Vox is taking part in the Basque region elections for the first time, and it is not clear whether the party will be able to enter the Basque parliament.

To provide our forecast of government formation, we consider the following constraints. The center-right alliance of People’s Party and Citizens (PP+Cs) excludes cooperation with left-wing Elkarrekin Podemos (EP-IU) and EH Bildu. PNV and EH Bildu, despite some common ground in advocating Basque national interests, have pronounced economic and social disagreements. Based on these constraints and the data from public opinion polls we provide our forecast.


Constraints in coalition formation


Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence of political parties (red lines)

Predicted government coalitions (white line denotes the level of stability)

Most stable (most likely) coalition formations scenario implies a left-wing government led by PSE-EE in cooperation with EP-IU and EH Bildu. A renewal of the current PNV – PSE-EE coalition constitutes a less likely alternative to the left-wing government. However, this time PSE-EE may take the lead, as it may have a power to choose between the two feasible coalitions.

OL’aNO likely to form the new government in Slovakia

The outcome of the Elections signifies a shift in the political landscape of Slovakia: the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak seems to have brought the topic of alleged government corruption to the focus of the public debate. As a result, two of the parties from the previous government coalition, the right Slovak National Party (SNS) and Hungarian minority party Most-Hid (MH), did not pass the threshold and will not be a part of the new parliament, while the Direction – Social Democracy (Smer-SD) lost its leading positions.

At the same time, the opposition force Ordinary People (OL’aNO-NOVA) founded as an anti-corruption protest party is celebrating a convincing victory: it managed to secure 53 out of 150 parliamentary seats. Other political parties represented in the new parliament are Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), For the People party (ZL) and We are Family (Sme Rodina), while the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and the Progressive Slovakia-Together coalition (PS+SPOLU) did not manage to pass the electoral threshold.

We consider the following constraints in coalition formation. SaS and ZL are members the non-aggression pact, which implies that cooperation with Smer-SD is excluded. Another constraint in coalition formation concerns the ultra-right People’s Party – Our Slovakia (LSNS): nearly all other parties exclude the opportunity to cooperate with it within one government coalition.

We provide our forecast based on the election results and constraints in coalition formation discussed above:


Constraints in coalition formation


Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence of political parties (red lines)

Predicted government coalitions (white line denotes the level of stability)

We expect OL’aNO-NOVA to form the new government, as it is present in every coalition formation scenario. The most stable (most likely) coalitions also include 2 parties out of SaS, ZL and Sme Rodina. The coalition between OL’aNO-NOVA and Smer-SD is less likely.