OL’aNO likely to form the new government in Slovakia

The outcome of the Elections signifies a shift in the political landscape of Slovakia: the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak seems to have brought the topic of alleged government corruption to the focus of the public debate. As a result, two of the parties from the previous government coalition, the right Slovak National Party (SNS) and Hungarian minority party Most-Hid (MH), did not pass the threshold and will not be a part of the new parliament, while the Direction – Social Democracy (Smer-SD) lost its leading positions.

At the same time, the opposition force Ordinary People (OL’aNO-NOVA) founded as an anti-corruption protest party is celebrating a convincing victory: it managed to secure 53 out of 150 parliamentary seats. Other political parties represented in the new parliament are Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), For the People party (ZL) and We are Family (Sme Rodina), while the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and the Progressive Slovakia-Together coalition (PS+SPOLU) did not manage to pass the electoral threshold.

We consider the following constraints in coalition formation. SaS and ZL are members the non-aggression pact, which implies that cooperation with Smer-SD is excluded. Another constraint in coalition formation concerns the ultra-right People’s Party – Our Slovakia (LSNS): nearly all other parties exclude the opportunity to cooperate with it within one government coalition.

We provide our forecast based on the election results and constraints in coalition formation discussed above:

Constraints in coalition formation

Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence of political parties (red lines)

Predicted government coalitions (white line denotes the level of stability)

We expect OL’aNO-NOVA to form the new government, as it is present in every coalition formation scenario. The most stable (most likely) coalitions also include 2 parties out of SaS, ZL and Sme Rodina. The coalition between OL’aNO-NOVA and Smer-SD is less likely.

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