The new government in Lithuania may be led by the Conservatives or the Farmers and Greens

The forthcoming legislative elections in Lithuania are scheduled to take place in October 2020. Potentially, more political parties may be able able to enter the parliament, as in December 2019 the electoral threshold has been decreased to 3% for single parties and 5% for coalitions.

In Lithuanian politics, party alliances change rather dynamically with the most recent shift taking place within the current government coalition structure. The Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS) was forced to look for new coalition partners as in 2017 the center-left Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) pulled out from the government coalition. It was replaced by the Social Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania (LSDDP), with the Polish minority Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance (LLRA) and right-wing Order and Justice party (TT) also joining the government coalition subsequently.

Meanwhile, the current polls demonstrate a decrease in electoral support of the governing parties. The conservative Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-KD) is the leading political force at the moment, scoring almost twice as good as LVZS. LSDDP is at risk of not being able to enter the new parliament, as its level of support is below 3%.

We consider the following coalition constraints. Due to past differences between LVZS and LSDP, we exclude the feasibility of this coalition in the future. Similarly, a coalition of TS-KD and LLRA, which broke down in 2014 is also excluded. Based on these constraints and the current polls, we present our forecast of government formation in Lithuania:

Constraints in coalition formation

Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence of political parties (red lines)

Predicted government coalitions (white line denotes the level of stability)

The most stable (most likely) government formation scenario implies a government led by LVZS, which also comprises the Labor party (DP), the Liberals Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS), TT and LLRA. All other coalition scenarios are dominated by TS-KD, with the most stable including LSDP and DP or TT.

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