The new government in Lithuania most likely to be led by the opposition Homeland Union

The recent legislative elections in Lithuania took place in two rounds and were completed on October 25th, 2020. In the first round, roughly half of the parliament was elected through the single member-constituencies, while the remainder of the seats were allocated through the proportional representation system in the second round. The final campaign month and elections in Lithuania coincided with a rapid increase in Covid-19 cases.

The elections in Lithuania produced somewhat surprising results: the opposition Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) has attained a convincing victory with 50 seats out of 141. The former cabinet leader, the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS), scores the second with only 32 seats. These results may reflect the growing concerns of the voters over the economic effects of the anti-Covid measures adopted by the LVZS-led government.

We consider the following coalition constraints as a basis for our forecast of government formation in Lithuania. Due to past differences between LVZS and the Social Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania (LSDDP) on one side and the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) on the other, we exclude the feasibility of an alliance of these two blocks in the future. Similarly, a coalition of TS-LKD and Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania (AWPL, formerly LLRA), which broke down in 2014 is also excluded. Finally, LVZS publicly refuses to form a coalition with the liberal Freedom party but does not exclude an agreement with TS-LKD. Based on these constraints and the election results, we present our analysis:

Constraints in coalition formation
ccccccccccccccccConstraints in coalition formation
cccccccProjected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence of political parties (red lines)
cccccPredicted government coalitions (white line denotes the level of stability)

With the considered government formation constraints there is no alternative to the TS-LKD-led government. Equally stable (equally likely) coalition formation scenarios include LSDP, the Freedom Party, the Liberals Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LSRS), the Labor Party (DP), and LVZS.